At the start of each trading session, you will receive an email with the author's new posts. Bears failed for the third straight week to keep the spot below the weekly MA. Still, over the last two weeks, the pair has been restricted in the range of 0. As of writing, the spot is trading in a sideways manner around 0. This has boosted speculation that the tax reform may not be completed before the year-end.
Progress in the tax reform talk could easily overshadow a combination of weak US data and strong Aussie data and lead to USD rally. On the other hand, more setbacks on the tax reform front could kill the US dollar. Despite the continued strength in the labor market, wage growth has remained anemic.
It is one of the reasons for weaker inflation readings The third quarter wage growth is seen rising to 0. A better-than-expected data could strengthen the Aussie dollar and vice versa. The employment data is likely to show continued labor market tightening. The economy is expected to have added around another 15, jobs in October, which would be the 13th straight month of job gains. While the headline figure could dominate wires, the AUD is likely to take cues from the full-time job number.
The unemployment is seen rising slightly to 5. Strong full-time jobs number could strengthen the bid tone around the Aussie. Meanwhile, from the US side, we have inflation indices and retail sales data due for release this week. USD bulls would want to see a better-than-expected core inflation and retail sales control group numbers.
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All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. Close alert Thanks for following this author! Close alert You've unfollowed this author. You won't receive any more email notifications from this author. Thursday - Australia Employment data - Daily chart On the dailies, the ascending trendline has worked as a strong support since Oct. Meanwhile, on the higher side, the day MA hurdle proved a tough nut to crack last week.
Also, the downward sloping head-and-shoulders neckline is working as a strong resistance as well. The chart also shows a bearish day MA and day MA crossover. Note that long-term moving average crossovers initially work as a contrarian indicator. Furthermore, the 5-day MA and day MA are sloping downwards in favor of the bears. Weekly chart The above chart shows the bears have failed for three straight weeks to breach the weekly MA blue line.
The RSI below However, the 5-week MA and week MA are still sloping downwards. View Repeated failure to breach the rising trend line and the weekly MA, coupled with confirmation of a lagging indicator bearish day MA and day MA suggests the spot could break above 0. Bearish scenario 4-hour chart Failure to take out the descending trendline followed by a move below 0. Poised for an upside break?More...