The first step, create a monster. The second step, use that monster to scare people into giving you power. The Minutes are likely to point to less confidence on an inflation pickup than three hikes in the dots suggest.
Fed Chair Yellen's comments yesterday suggests that she has less confidence in the three hikes that she very likely put into her dot plot. The Street is looking for a veritable surge in hiring following the hurricane-related disruption last month sent monthly payrolls to the first negative print in 7 years.
Analysts also expect wage growth to continue rising: Median forecasts looks for k nonfarm payroll jobs, with average hourly earnings rising rise to 2.
While normally Wednesday's Fed meeting would be the week's biggest market-moving event, this time - smack in the middle of the busiest earnings week of the year - it may not even make the top three Thursday's ECB meeting is expected to be one of the most important in recent years: While inflation will likely be a heavily debated topic, given recent Fedspeak it appears that most voting members are looking through some of the recent weakness and prefer to continue the "gradual" removal of monetary accommodation, in line with speculation that the Fed is no longer data dependent and may have lowered its inflation target outright.
European stocks are little changed, with Spanish shares gaining after Catalan President rows back from an immediate declaration of independence. MSCI's all-world stocks index briefly hit a fresh record high. Tomorrow's hurricane-affected September jobs report will be That is the lack of consensus from Wall Street analysts, who expect an average print of 80, down from the 3-month average of K , however with huge variance on either side, with 4 economists predicting a loss of jobs, three expecting a print higher than K and one optimistic forecaster going as high as , It is designed to outline the basis for negotiations at the fourth round of EU-UK negotiations in Brussels next week.
In what may be one of Janet Yellen's last, and certainly her most difficult in recent history meetings, tomorrow the FOMC will not hike rates but will announce the start of its balance sheet normalization programme, while revising its economic projections and hinting whether the December meeting is "live" for one more rate hike. Here's what else to look forward to World stocks hit new record highs on Tuesday amid a continuation of Monday's risk-on theme which unleashed a dramatic relief rally on easing North Korea tensions and signs that Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared.
After a barrage of media trial balloons as recently as today meant to temper the enthusiasm of Euro bulls now that the EURUSD is back to 1. If there is one common theme across sellside previews of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls number, expected at K after a surprising jump to K in July, it is to brace for disappointment, or in Wall Street parlance, "downside risks.
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