Diminished odds for further EUR weakness. EUR edged below Monday 03 Apr low of 1. That said, the odds for such a move have diminished. Our recent expectation for a stronger recovery was proven wrong as GBP dropped below the key short-term support at 1. This pair has likely moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways in the coming days, likely within a 1. Immediate downward pressure towards 0.
AUD dropped to a low of 0. Resistance is at 0. A sustained move below 0. NZD is approaching the bottom of the expected 0. While a dip below 0. That said, the downward pressure would continue to increase in the coming days unless NZD can reclaim 0. We continue to hold the view that USD is trading in a USD touched an overnight low of As long as Odds for a move above 1.
EUR traded within a tight range yesterday and closed on a weak note. While upward pressure is waning, another attempt to move towards 1. On the downside, EUR has to move clearly below 1. To take half-profit at 1.
The overnight high of 1. While the bullish phase that started on Monday is still intact, we believe the rally is running ahead of itself and continue to suggest taking partial profit at 1.
Pull-back has scope to extend to 0. While we held the view that the immediate bias is for a probe lower towards 0. From here, unless AUD can reclaim 0. As highlighted yesterday, NZD has likely made a short-term top at 0.
The current price action is viewed as part of a consolidation phase that could last for several days. Overall, expect sideway trading from here, likely between 0. No signs of stabilization just yet. We still view the current decline as severely over-extended but with no signs of stabilization just yet, another push lower towards All in, the current downward pressure would ease only if USD can move and stay above On the BoE's front, ABN AMRO's base case is that the central bank will look through the recent rise in inflation and keep interest rates on hold as exchange-rate driven inflation tends to be relatively transient.
Immediate upwards pressure towards 1. EUR hit a high of 1. Despite the pull-back, the undertone is still positive and another attempt higher towards 1. Only a move back below 1. Shift from bearish to neutral: The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and GBP is expected to trade within a 1. As noted yesterday, the recent pull-back is showing signs of stabilizing but it is too early to expect a sustained recovery. AUD hit a high of 0. While the undertone has improved somewhat, we still view the current movement as part of a 0.
Early and tentative signs of basing. As noted last Friday, the pace of the decline in NZD has slowed and it is getting increasingly likely that this pair is trying to form a short-term base.
In the meanwhile, NZD is expected to trade sideways at these lower levels, likely within a 0. We highlighted last Friday that only a clear break of While a failure to move above this level was not unexpected, the sharp and rapid drop from a high of The recent build-up in upward momentum has eased and while the undertone is still generally positive, USD appears to have move into a Strong rebound to extend to 1.
EUR touched a high of 1. At this stage, a clear break of this level is not expected. Support is at 1. Expect further weakness to 1. Despite the overall bearish indications, the lack of a sustained down-move in GBP is discouraging. However, only a move back above 1. In the meanwhile, this pair is expected to continue to drift lower towards 1. Expect further weakness towards 0. As indicated yesterday, as long as 0. At this stage, we view the current AUD weakness as a corrective pull-back and a sustained move below 0.
Room for extension to 0. While we held the view that the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the pace and depth of the decline in NZD continues to surprise. The recent sharp drop is severely oversold now and while further extension to 0. That said, confirmation that the immediate downward pressure has eased is only upon a move back above 0. Rebound has room to extend to While the rapid pull-back has dented the upward momentum, another attempt to move towards This is a rather strong resistance and is unlikely to break so easily.
On downside, support is at Diminished odds for extension to 1. However, the pull-back from the top is clearly lacking in momentum and while the immediate pressure is still on the downside, the odds for another leg lower to 1. Key short-term resistance remains at 1. Pull-back has room to extend lower to 1. The sudden reversal from a high of 1. The rapid swing lower has shifted the pressure to the downside and the current pull-back has scope to extend lower to month-to-date low at 1.
This is a rather strong support and at this stage, a sustained move below this level is not expected. Overall, GBP is expected to stay under pressure in the next few days unless it can reclaim 1. To take half profit at 0.
The stop-loss for our bullish view at 0. It is increasingly likely that the 3-week bullish phase is coming to an end. Only a sustained move back above 0. Back in range, likely between 0. NZD eased off quickly without testing the major 0. The short-term upward pressure has eased and this pair has likely moved back into a consolidation phase, likely between 0. Room for a test of major While we indicated that a test of The pressure is still on the downside and there is room for the current weakness to extend lower towards the major Stabilization is only upon a move back above While there is no change to the current neutral view, the weak daily closing suggests that the short-term bias is tilted to the downside.
A move below the expected 1. Resistance is at 1. Early and tentative signs of a break lower. That said, GBP has to break clearly below 1. Overall, the immediate downward pressure is expected to increase further unless GBP can reclaim the very strong resistance at 1. The odds for another leg higher to 0.
In the meanwhile, those are who are long should continue to look to take half profit at 0. There is not much to add as NZD traded in a relatively narrow range last Friday. That said, the immediate bias has shifted slightly to the downside and a move below the expected 0.
The up-move from the From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade betweenMore...