This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close or far apart sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week. This distribution also tells if there is unanimity or disparity among participants. Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility.
By displaying three central tendency measures mean, median, and mode , you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants. In this chart, the close price is shifted behind so it corresponds to the date when the price for that week was forecasted.
This enables the comparison between the average forecast price and the effective close price. This chart tracks the percentage change between the close prices.
Bouts of volatility or extreme flat volatility can be then compared to the typical outcome expressed through the averages. This measure is basically an arithmetical average of the three central tendency measures mean, median, and mode. It smooths the typical outcome eliminating any possible noise caused by outliers.
Together with the close price, this chart displays the minimum and maximum forecast prices collected among individual participants. The result is a price corridor, usually enveloping the weekly close price from above and below, and serves as a measure of volatility. The Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them.
When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market. You can also use the Forecast Poll for Contrarian thinking strategies. The Forecast Poll helps traders detect sentiment extremes and thereby limit their eventual toxic herd behavior. This graph is available for each time horizon 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter. We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
This group includes the following currency pairs: By the end of , the average forecast for the pair is 1, Read more details about the poll. In particular, will be the year of presidential election in France April 23 for the first round, May 7 for the second one and of the German federal election on September Finally, the political instability in Italy will be closely watched. Paolo Gentiloni took over as Prime Minister after Matteo Renzi resigned in response to the rejection of his constitutional reforms at a referendum in November This happened in a complicated economic situation where key Italian banks are on the verge of bankruptcy and capital is flowing out of the country.
How to Read the Forecast Poll charts Overview This chart informs about the average forecast prices, and also how close or far apart sit the numbers from all participants surveyed that week.
Bias Each participant's bias is calculated automatically based on the week's close price and recent volatility. Averages By displaying three central tendency measures mean, median, and mode , you can know if the average forecast is being skewed by any outlier among the poll participants.
Currencies This group includes the following currency pairs:More...