For most people the word gambling has negative connotations with the word betting slightly less negative, risk taking lesser still and the word trading by comparison can sound perfectly respectable. Trading however is just another form of risk taking where you speculate on the outcome of price movement, rather than the toss of a coin or the result of a horse race.
Hold on, trading is a skill that can be learnt and there are many examples of successful traders. If you want a better understanding of what staking strategies could do to your bottom line, have a look at this experiment of the results of betting on a biased coin by a group of finance graduates. If a high fraction of quantitatively sophisticated, financially trained individuals have so much difficulty in playing a simple game with a biased coin, what should we expect when it comes to the rest of us.
Maybe you would be best starting out with the why you do what you do, rather than how to do it. I need something else to give me the nudge I need to take it forward. Makes sense but that fear of missing out on that first good trade, created enough discomfort for me to disregard the idea in the past.
Participants in one experiment were asked to repeatedly enter bets selecting between low odds high probability-low return and high odds low probability-high return bets. They made their selections by pressing a key on a computer keyboard. It was found that when participants had to occasionally hold back from making a selection, they slowed down and became more cautious in the amount of money they bet, suggesting that becoming more cautious about pressing the keys on the keyboard led to greater caution in risk taking.
In other experiments they examined whether training people to stop hand responses to arbitrary signals on the computer screen would have longer-term effects on risk-taking. Inhibition training reduces risk-taking during gambling. Gamblers have been found to misjudge their chances of winning due to errors in thinking called cognitive distortions. Near misses appear to make a gambler play more even though it is just another loss.
Having a run of events like several reds on roulette makes people think that black is due. A slot machine that delivered wins and near misses and 2: He used a control group of healthy patients and was able to report that all groups were effected by near misses and the gamblers fallacy except for the insula brain damaged group.
This part of the brain was already known to have a key role in our emotions and so any adverse emotional stimuli may make a person more vulnerable to these fallacies. At the same time in April Juemin Xu and Nigel Harvey, researchers at University College London released a study into the effects of winning and losing streaks on the chances of future success in online sports gambling.
They sampled , bets from online gamblers and looked at how previous winning streaks or losing streaks affected the probability of a win in the future. The gamblers fallacy actually appeared to create the hot hand. After consecutive losers the opposite happened and the next selections kept losing more and more. The gamblers fallacy that was suppose to reverse the fortune did not occur because the losers started selecting riskier higher odds selections with less money staked upon them.
The rats who participated in the study gambled for sugary treats and learned to avoid the risky options, however when flashing lights and music was added to the mix they started taking much riskier bets.
This appears to have exactly the opposite effect of letting the first trade go by. The environment we work in has to play a big role in our ability to remain in the zone for want of a better description. Recently I heard Chris Pulver describe how he wears sunglasses during trading to protect his eyes from the glare of the screen. A study published in the Journal of Neuroscience looked into the effects of sleep deprivation on decision -making skills, finding that a tired brain tends to make overly optimistic gambles.
The study found that tired people tended to try to maximise their winnings rather than defending against potential losses. As we all know in trading protecting our capital is one of the golden rules so getting into a regular habit of getting a good nights sleep has to be a must. Take special note of the 5 things that Matt says he keeps in the fore-front of his mind while trading.
Listen to how he assesses himself as part of the trading system. Think about what he says he might do after a couple of losses. And by the way the first time I heard about someone who lets the first trade go was, yes Matt LaCoco. This is pure gold for short-term day traders and a must listen too, many, many times.
The nature bit is probably our intelligence level and our natural creative talent and the nurture is our own successful risk taking experiences within the confines of our natural abilities. I heard once that IQ tests were invented and marketed by people who were good at these sort of tests.
IQ could be thought of as a term invented and used as a power thing, and a put down for those not in the group. Why is this so, if they are such clever bastards? You may even not actually need the experience if you can relate to others who have. IQ may not actually matter a jot. That begs the question, if you are so clever, why are you reading such a poorly written, non-academic and stupid article in the first place?
Maybe this number will drop down in the future. Also I like to clone my inner trendlines which are shown on my charts as dashed lines with the original solid, all parallel of course. Each trading view chart is separated into 6.
The context comes from the minutes chart. Shonn uses the min however as I was loath to lose my 60 min I compromised with the I always was and am, a big Wilson fan. All my entries must be taken with price moving towards me. This is what I bring to this myself. You can miss some trades that just go, but it helps me not to be sitting in the negative whilst waiting for the move as often can happen.
Even if the move goes for it, another setup on the 1 or 5 min may still present itself. This way also prevents any jumping in on the fear of missing out. The charts of a struggling trader, someone who is trying to put it all together. Then again you might just be missing out on something. How many traders out there started out with this beginners luck that are still trading.
I would suggest there are far more than those who started out with bad luck, who were demoralized from the start and headed straight for the door to try something else. Luck has a way of guiding our path though life, how we start out, how we develop, and the opportunities and misfortunes that are presented to us along the way. Books have been written about talent being over-rated, about nature versus nurture, and as mentioned above about luck.
Maybe for some being stupid is fortunate! When we hear successful people telling us about how they got to where they are, how many of these were just the lucky ones? How many who took the exact same path failed? Who knows the answer to that one. Put genius together with determination, you get something out of the ordinary, but put determination and persistence to almost any level and it appears to hold sway.
Have a quick look at this 2 minute video and see what I mean. With Rob, Jason Pyles, Scott Welsh and arm wrestling champion Kevin Buetts all adding to the mix, this is a must for anyone determined to see things through. The results here I show you are the sync with forex factory that I took a screenshot of at the time.
Get out when in doubt and I always seemed to be in doubt. In fact I was always entering at the exact spot the correlated move started reversing and at the worst possible moment.
The answer is persistence my friends and the thought that if others could do it so could I. So you could say a bit of competitiveness too. My childhood with a father who studied the horse racing form book , which lead me to do the same and read everything I could about gambling and professional horse race punters was my background.
Now sometimes we need a lucky break. We need a bit of a run of the ball to get the spirits up, and the juices flowing. We make do with being inspired by others whilst we wait for that bit of luck that can set us off.
Then we need to blot out all the losing that came before and concentrate on preserving that which good fortune has given us. In the spirit of successful trader and fellow blogger Shonn Campbell https: I am in the early stages of learning technical analysis with Steve Winiarski at http: The back and base is now stuck with superglue onto a dinning table chair for comfort during trading.
And after starting to make some headway after flat-lining for a while, I gave a little of it back when a bout of ill health struck this week. On Tuesday I started getting symptoms that effected my concentration. On Wednesday an ambulance took me to the City hospital after I developed paralysis of the left side of the face. Lucky for me I suppose.
Being off work, I decided to carry on trading like the wrestler in the podcast , nothing will get in my way. After all I am learning and only risking 0. Here are my results for the 14 weeks. On one of these occasions, the morning after the rutting, we had a knock on the door and to our surprise it was the lady next door. She had come around to complain about the noise we were keeping late last evening.
Why have I mentioned this? Like massive increases in unemployment, defence cuts, property crashes, more austerity, pensions collapse etc. Well exaggerated, over the top stuff. The decided to try and deflect the attention from their own outrageous claims, by starting to accuse the Leavers of making the same sort of claims themselves. This may have been part cause of the recent surge in the Leave vote, if you believe the stats being poured out from the internet and telephone polls.
There is another possibility for the increase in vote, which is more conspiracy theory like. Update 15 june You may think it was the leavers who did this, but they would be shooting themselves in the foot. Me thinks conspiracy theory not far off the mark. Given that most of the material on this blog is either plagiarised, with a few anecdotes from myself added, or it is fully copied and pasted, with myself trying to fill in the gaps with a pithy comment or two.More...