An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an increase or improvement, and below 50 indicates a decrease or deterioration. Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy.
Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures. Describes the flow of all goods and services, income, and transfer payments to and from Australia. This figure acts as a gauge of how Australia 's economy interacts with the rest of the world.
Whereas the other side of the Balance of Payments, the Capital and Financial Accounts, deals mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a practical, non-investment basis. The Current Account is comprised of the value of the trade balance exports and imports for goods and services , income payments such as interest, dividends and salaries and unilateral transfers aid, taxes, and one-way gifts.
A positive value current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital from these components into Australia exceeds the capital leaving Australia. A negative value current account deficit means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a natural depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect Australian dollars leaving the country to make payments in a foreign currency just as underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight.
There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released every quarter. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account production and trade figures are known well in advance.
Lastly, since the report reflect data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been felt during that quarter and not during the release of data. It gives a detailed picture of how the Australian economy interacts internationally, breaking down these interactions into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated.
Thus, the weight of the Current Account has led it to historically be one of the more important reports out of Australia. The statement contains the latest decision regarding changes to the countries short term interest rates, monetary policy, and the direction of the economy. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation. A hawkish statement could boost the currency where a dovish statement could lower the currency's valuation.
Gauge for the overall performance of the country's service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the country's service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector.
For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a scale.
The headline figure is the percentage change in the index. Pada bagian ini anda tersedia analisis yang kualitatif dari para ahli terkemuka portal MT5 dalam bidang Forex. Selain itu, pada bagian "Analisis" anda bisa melihat ulasan mengenai pasar Forex , analisis keuangan dan juga analisa prediksi berdasarkan pada peristiwa ekonomi yang ada disajikan dalam kalender portal.
The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.
Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.
Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way: The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.
Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers. Factory Orders is not a widely watched economic release. Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.
On a Technical Note: The New Orders figure measures the value of orders received by manufacturers for new products from both domestic and foreign sources. The total value of products shipped is calculated in Shipments while Unfilled Orders measures the value of goods backlogged for order but not yet shipped. Lastly, Inventories gauges the amount of unsold goods held by manufacturers. The average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product GDP by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth.
The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population.
Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth.
Measures the output produced for each hour of labor worked. Non-farm Productivity is considered the most accurate gauge of overall business health, given farming data's small and volatile contribution to GDP. To businesses, higher productivity indicates efficient use of employees and capital. Given that labor costs make up more than two-thirds of the average businesses expenses, high productivity can allow a firm to fulfill consumer demand with less labor costs, boosting profitability.
Thus trends in this report can precede investment spending and business growth. Also if prices for raw materials increase, improved productivity can save a firm from passing higher costs to the end consumer. Given such business effects, healthy productivity growth bodes well for the economy as a whole, signalling increased production capability and business growth. If the BoC is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the CAD.
Likewise, if the BoC has a dovish view on the Canadian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. This statement is the primary medium used by the Bank of Canada BoC to communicate with investors about monetary policy decisions, specifically those regarding interest rates. The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis.
The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful. A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.
Surpluses and Deficits A positive Trade Balance surplus indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit.
Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets. At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.
Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period, not during the release of data.
However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends on Forex, the release has historically been one of the more important reports in any country. The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one.
A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks. The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.
High unemployment translates into lower average wages and reduced consumer spending. As consumer spending is the majority of total expenditure, rising unemployment often leads to slow economic growth. In addition, high or rising unemployment puts downward pressure on interest rates and leads to a depreciating Franc. Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Germany.
Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of German industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Euro. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.
The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change. This is the amount of foreign currency reserves that are held by the Central Bank of a country.
In general use, foreign currency reserves also include gold and IMF reserves. Also, people may take into account liquid assets that can easily be converted into foreign currency. A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted. The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January An indicator for broad overall growth in the Eurozone.More...